{"id":896,"date":"2022-10-02T14:23:52","date_gmt":"2022-10-02T06:23:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/?p=896"},"modified":"2022-10-05T07:44:14","modified_gmt":"2022-10-04T23:44:14","slug":"%e8%bf%90%e7%bb%b4%e5%b7%a5%e5%85%b7-%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-prophet%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%ae%9e%e8%b7%b5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/02\/%e8%bf%90%e7%bb%b4%e5%b7%a5%e5%85%b7-%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-prophet%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%ae%9e%e8%b7%b5\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8fd0\u7ef4\u5de5\u5177 &#8211; \u5f02\u5e38\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790 Prophet\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u5b9e\u8df5"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u7814\u5224\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u800c\u8a00\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002<code>Facebook<\/code>\u57282017\u5e74\u5f00\u6e90\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u53eb\u505a<code>fbprophet<\/code>\uff0c\u5176\u529f\u80fd\u5305\u62ec\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e0a\u4e0b\u9650\uff1b<\/li><li>\u8bbe\u7f6e\u8d8b\u52bf\u65ad\u70b9\uff1b<\/li><li>\u5904\u7406\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u548c\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u6548\u5e94\uff1b<\/li><li>\u5141\u8bb8\u4e58\u6cd5\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\uff1b<\/li><li>\u533a\u95f4\u9884\u6d4b\uff1b<\/li><li>\u5904\u7406\u5f02\u5e38\u503c\uff1b<\/li><li>\u5904\u7406\u975e\u65e5\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\uff1b<\/li><li>\u6a21\u578b\u68c0\u6d4b\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u6765\u4e3a\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u6027\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u521d\u6b65\u63a2\u7d22\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div 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href=\"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/02\/%e8%bf%90%e7%bb%b4%e5%b7%a5%e5%85%b7-%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-prophet%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%ae%9e%e8%b7%b5\/#Prophet_%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%AF%E4%BB%A5%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%82%E6%95%B0\" title=\"Prophet \u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u53c2\u6570\">Prophet \u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u53c2\u6570<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/02\/%e8%bf%90%e7%bb%b4%e5%b7%a5%e5%85%b7-%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-prophet%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%ae%9e%e8%b7%b5\/#Prophet_%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8\" title=\"Prophet \u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4f7f\u7528\">Prophet \u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4f7f\u7528<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" 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href=\"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/02\/%e8%bf%90%e7%bb%b4%e5%b7%a5%e5%85%b7-%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-prophet%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%ae%9e%e8%b7%b5\/#%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E5%87%BD%E6%95%B0%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE\" title=\"\u589e\u957f\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e\">\u589e\u957f\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/02\/%e8%bf%90%e7%bb%b4%e5%b7%a5%e5%85%b7-%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-prophet%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%ae%9e%e8%b7%b5\/#%E5%8F%98%E7%82%B9%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE\" title=\"\u53d8\u70b9\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e\">\u53d8\u70b9\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/02\/%e8%bf%90%e7%bb%b4%e5%b7%a5%e5%85%b7-%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-prophet%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%ae%9e%e8%b7%b5\/#%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE\" title=\"\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e\">\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/02\/%e8%bf%90%e7%bb%b4%e5%b7%a5%e5%85%b7-%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-prophet%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%ae%9e%e8%b7%b5\/#%E8%8A%82%E5%81%87%E6%97%A5%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE\" title=\"\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e\">\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E5%AE%89%E8%A3%85\"><\/span>\u4e00\u3001\u5b89\u88c5<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u63a8\u8350\u4f7f\u7528conda\u5b89\u88c5\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e<code>fbprophet<\/code>\u9700\u8981\u8c03\u7528<code>pyStan<\/code>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5f00\u6e90\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b89\u88c5\u547d\u4ee4\u4e3a\u4e0b\u8ff0\u4e24\u6761\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>conda config --add channels https:\/\/mirrors.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn\/anaconda\/pkgs\/free\/\nconda config --add channels https:\/\/mirrors.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn\/anaconda\/cloud\/conda-forge\/\nconda config --add channels https:\/\/mirrors.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn\/anaconda\/cloud\/msys2\/\nconda config --set show_channel_urls yes<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>conda update &#8211;force conda<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>conda install libpython m2w64-toolc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>!<code>conda install -c conda-forge pystan <\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><code>conda install -c conda-forge fbprophet<\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>conda clean -i<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>conda<\/em>&nbsp;config &#8211;add channels https:\/\/mirrors.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn\/anaconda\/cloud\/bioconda&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>conda\u5b89\u88c5\u8f6f\u4ef6\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0<em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>Collecting package metadata (current_repodata.json): failed\n...\nAn unexpected error has occurred. Conda has prepared the above report.\n\nIf submitted, this report will be used by core maintainers to improve\nfuture releases of conda.\nWould you like conda to send this report to the core maintainers?\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u6709\u91cd\u88c5\u8fc7anaconda\uff0c\u5728\u6839\u76ee\u5f55\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u540d\u53eb.condarc\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u751f\u6210\u3002<br>\u5f53\u4f7f\u7528conda install\u548cconda create\u547d\u4ee4\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1aCollecting package metadata (current_repodata.json): failed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>conda config --show-sources\nrm -rf ~\/.condarc\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%BA%8C%E3%80%81%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%87%86%E5%A4%87\"><\/span>\u4e8c\u3001\u6570\u636e\u51c6\u5907<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><code>fbprophet<\/code>\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u636e\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u4e24\u5217\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5217\u662f\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5217\u662f\u8981\u62df\u5408\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u3002\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u75283\u4e2a\u6708\u7684SHIBOR\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u540d\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u4fee\u6539\u6210<code>ds<\/code>\u548c<code>y<\/code>\u3002\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%B8%89%E3%80%81%E5%88%9D%E6%AD%A5%E5%A4%84%E7%90%86\"><\/span>\u4e09\u3001\u521d\u6b65\u5904\u7406<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><code>fbprophet<\/code>\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u5927\u6982\u6b65\u9aa4\u662f\uff0c\u5148\u751f\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a<code>Prophet<\/code>\u5b9e\u4f8b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8c03\u7528<code>fit<\/code>\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u62df\u5408\uff0c\u8c03\u7528<code>predict<\/code>\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u62df\u5408\u3002\u4ee3\u7801\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<code>m = Prophet() m.fit(data) future_time = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=365) forecast = m.predict(future_time) fig1 = m.plot(forecast) fig2 = m.plot_components(forecast)<\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0b\u56fe\u5c31\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u521d\u6b65\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u9ed1\u8272\u8868\u793a\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u7684\u79bb\u6563\u70b9\uff0c\u6df1\u84dd\u8272\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u901a\u8fc7\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u62df\u5408\u7684\u503c\uff0c\u6d45\u84dd\u8272\u533a\u57df\u8868\u793a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic4.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-3eebddeb4eca73f85d4b15300cc867fb_720w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u770b\u770b\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u53d6\u51fa\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u9879\uff0c\u4ece\u4e0b\u56fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u81ea2018\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5bf9\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u7ebf\u6027\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u3002\u4ece\u5e74\u5185\u5404\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u89c4\u5f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\u4e0b\u884c\u3001\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u4e0a\u884c\u3001\u5e74\u4e2d\u77ed\u6682\u8df3\u5347\u7684W\u578b\u3002\u4ece\u5468\u5185\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5468\u4e94\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u663e\u7684\u8df3\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic1.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-f46bb307742717e2d1684779183d8854_720w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%9B%9B%E3%80%81%E8%BF%9B%E4%B8%80%E6%AD%A5%E4%BF%AE%E6%AD%A3\"><\/span>\u56db\u3001\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4fee\u6b63<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\u3001\u8d8b\u52bf\u9879\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;<code>fbprophet<\/code>\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u8d8b\u52bf\u9879\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u51fd\u6570\uff08<code>logistic function<\/code>\uff09\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u6765\u62df\u5408\u5355\u5411\u589e\u957f\u6216\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u589e\u957f\u6216\u8005\u4e0b\u964d\u6709\u754c\u9650\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5206\u6bb5\u7ebf\u6027\u51fd\u6570\uff08<code>piecewise linear function<\/code>\uff09\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\u7b2c\u4e8c\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f<code>fbprophet<\/code>\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9ed8\u8ba4\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5355\u72ec\u8bbe\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\u3001\u8d8b\u52bf\u53d8\u70b9\u7684\u8bbe\u5b9a\u548c\u68c0\u6d4b\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u53d8\u70b9\u201d\u3002<code>fbprophet<\/code>\u6a21\u578b\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u8bc6\u522b\u53d8\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u8fc7\u62df\u5408\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u9ed8\u8ba4\u5728\u524d80%\u7684\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u8bc6\u522b\u53d8\u70b9\u3002\u4e0b\u56fe\u7528\u7ea2\u8272\u7ad6\u7ebf\u6807\u8bc6\u51fa\u6a21\u578b\u81ea\u52a8\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u53d8\u70b9\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u6700\u65b0\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u53d8\u70b9\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u8d8b\u52bf\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u4e0b\u884c\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic2.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-5c0883d98f2247bc2da35799543f89a9_720w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528<code>changepoint_range<\/code>\u6765\u8c03\u6574\u8bbe\u7f6e\u53d8\u70b9\u7684\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u4fee\u6539\u8bbe\u7f6e<code>changepoint_range=1<\/code>\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u5c065\u6708\u4efd\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u9762\u8fb9\u9645\u6536\u7d27\uff0c\u8bc6\u522b\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6574\u4f53\u4e0a\u884c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u8fc7\u62df\u5408\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic1.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-cb1e976cb9e6defdabee433e3c70b23c_720w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u624b\u52a8\u8bbe\u7f6e\u53d8\u70b9\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u7387\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7279\u522b\u5927\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u8c03\u6574\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u7387\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53d8\u70b9\u8fdb\u884c\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic4.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-034ce59d7195e19fe5d2a997e45a2993_720w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\u3001\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\uff0c\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u662f\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e0b\u8ff0\u8bed\u53e5\uff0c\u6765\u7eb3\u5165\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8282\u5047\u65e5\uff0c<code>fbprophet<\/code>\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7eb3\u5165\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u6709\uff1a\u5143\u65e6\u3001\u6625\u8282\u3001\u6e05\u660e\u8282\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u8282\u3001\u7aef\u5348\u8282\u3001\u4e2d\u79cb\u8282 \u56fd\u5e86\u8282\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5047\u65e5\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u5e02\u573a\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u4e0d\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u4e0d\u4e88\u5904\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><code>m.add_country_holidays(country_name='CN')<\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4\u3001\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u8bbe\u7f6e\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;<code>fbprophet<\/code>\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u9ed8\u8ba4\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u662f\u5468\u5ea6\u548c\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5468\u5ea6\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u5e76\u4e0d\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6708\u5ea6\u548c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6bd4\u8f83\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u628a\u5468\u5ea6\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u6210\u6708\u5ea6\u548c\u5b63\u5ea6\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ece\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u5206\u89e3\u56fe\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5728\u6708\u5185\u6709\u6bd4\u8f83\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\uff0c\u6708\u521d\u7f34\u51c6\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u4e0b\u65ec\u7a0e\u671f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u6708\u672b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u504f\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic1.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-20e3f2fb3d4f9c602ceeb7649cfa3b70_720w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>5\u3001\u5de5\u4f5c\u65e5\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;\u56e0\u4e3a\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5de5\u4f5c\u65e5\u6709\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u65e5\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><code>future_time = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=365,freq='B')<\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E4%BA%94%E3%80%81%E4%BC%98%E7%BC%BA%E7%82%B9%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90\"><\/span>\u4e94\u3001\u4f18\u7f3a\u70b9\u5206\u6790<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><code>fbprophet<\/code>\u6a21\u578b\u901f\u5ea6\u6bd4\u8f83\u5feb\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u5ea6\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u884c\u8bbe\u7f6e\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u3001\u6de1\u65fa\u5b63\u3001\u5de5\u4f5c\u65e5\u3001\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u3001\u53d8\u70b9\u7b49\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u529f\u80fd\u5f88\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u7f3a\u70b9\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f83\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u4ec5\u57fa\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5f15\u5165\u5916\u90e8\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u592e\u884c\u964d\u51c6\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5927\u989d\u8d85\u91cf\u7eed\u4f5cMLF\u7b49\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u5e26\u6765\u660e\u663e\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u65e0\u6cd5\u6355\u6349\u8fd9\u79cd\u5916\u751f\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u7b14\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c<code>fbprophet<\/code>\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u4ee5\u57fa\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6839\u636e\u5176\u4ed6\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u672a\u67651\u5e74\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u4ee3\u7801\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic3.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-2d71bb9279867ce7440c91f7c8f6154a_720w.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><code>m = Prophet(changepoints=rrr.index.astype(str).tolist(),weekly_seasonality=False) m.add_seasonality(name='monthly', period=30.5, fourier_order=5) m.add_seasonality(name='quarterly', period=90, fourier_order=7) future_time = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=365,freq='B') forecast = m.fit(data).predict(future_time) fig1 = m.plot(forecast) fig2 = m.plot_components(forecast)<\/code><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5b9e\u8df5\u64cd\u4f5c\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>import pandas as pd\nfrom fbprophet import Prophet\nfrom pandas.plotting import register_matplotlib_converters\nfrom fbprophet.plot import add_changepoints_to_plot\ndf = pd.read_csv('csv.csv')\n# Z-score\u6807\u51c6\u5316\u5f52\u4e00\n#df&#91;'y'] = (df&#91;'y'] - df&#91;'y'].mean()) \/ (df&#91;'y'].std())\nprint(df.head())\nspecial_days = pd.DataFrame({\n  'holiday': 'holiday_or_discount',\n  'ds': pd.to_datetime(&#91;'2022-01-15', '2022-02-14']),\n  'lower_window': -1,\n  'upper_window': 1,\n})\ndiscountday = pd.DataFrame({\n  'holiday': 'discountday',\n  'ds': pd.to_datetime(&#91;'2022-08-01']),\n  'lower_window': -1,\n  'upper_window': 2,\n})\n#holidays = pd.concat((special_days, discountday))\nholidays = special_days\nm = Prophet(yearly_seasonality=False,\nweekly_seasonality=True,\nholidays= holidays,\ndaily_seasonality=False,\n#\u81ea\u52a8\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6539\u53d8\u70b9\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u8c03\u8282\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u8f83\u5927\u503c\u5c06\u5141\u8bb8\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6539\u53d8\u70b9\uff0c\u8f83\u5c0f\u503c\u5c06\u5141\u8bb8\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u6539\u53d8\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u53d8\u5316\u901f\u7387\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\nchangepoint_prior_scale=0.15,\n#changepoint_prior_scale=0.35,\n#\u8c03\u6574\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u7684\u62df\u5408\u7a0b\u5ea6\nseasonality_prior_scale=10,\nholidays_prior_scale=10\n# \u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u533a\u95f4\u5bbd\u5ea6\n#interval_width=0.50,\n)\n#m.add_seasonality(name='monthly', period=30.5, fourier_order=5)\nm.fit(df)\n# \u9884\u6d4b\u5929\u6570\nfday = 14\nfuture = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=fday)\nfuture&#91;'cap'] = 200\nfuture&#91;'floor'] = 0\nprint(future.tail(fday))\nforecast = m.predict(future)\nprint(forecast&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat', 'yhat_lower', 'yhat_upper']].tail(fday))\n# add_regressor\n#a = add_changepoints_to_plot(fig1.gca(), m, forecast)\nregister_matplotlib_converters()\n\n#AttributeError: module 'PIL.Image' has no attribute 'register_extensions'\n#pip install pillow==4.1.1\n\nfig1 = m.plot(forecast)\nfig1.show()\nfig2 = m.plot_components(forecast)\nfig2.show()\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Prophet_%E4%B8%AD%E5%8F%AF%E4%BB%A5%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%82%E6%95%B0\"><\/span><strong>Prophet \u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u53c2\u6570<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728 Prophet \u4e2d\uff0c\u7528\u6237\u4e00\u822c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56db\u79cd\u53c2\u6570\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Capacity\uff1a\u5728\u589e\u91cf\u51fd\u6570\u662f\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u5bb9\u91cf\u503c\u3002<\/li><li>Change Points\uff1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7 n_changepoints \u548c changepoint_range \u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u7b49\u8ddd\u7684\u53d8\u70b9\u8bbe\u7f6e\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4eba\u5de5\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6765\u6307\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u53d8\u70b9\u3002<\/li><li>\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u548c\u8282\u5047\u65e5\uff1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6839\u636e\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u9700\u6c42\u6765\u6307\u5b9a\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>\u5149\u6ed1\u53c2\u6570\uff1a&nbsp;\u03c4=&nbsp;changepoint_prior_scale \u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u5ea6\uff0c&nbsp;\u03c3=&nbsp;seasonality_prior_scale \u7528\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u5b63\u8282\u9879\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u5ea6\uff0c&nbsp;v=&nbsp;holidays prior scale \u7528\u6765\u63a7\u5236\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u5ea6\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u60f3\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528 Prophet \u9ed8\u8ba4\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u5373\u53ef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Prophet_%E7%9A%84%E5%AE%9E%E9%99%85%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8\"><\/span><strong>Prophet \u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u4f7f\u7528<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Prophet_%E7%9A%84%E7%AE%80%E5%8D%95%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8\"><\/span><strong>Prophet \u7684\u7b80\u5355\u4f7f\u7528<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u4e3a Prophet \u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u4e24\u5217\u540d\u79f0\u662f &#8216;ds&#8217; \u548c &#8216;y&#8217;\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c&#8217;ds&#8217; \u8868\u793a\u65f6\u95f4\u6233\uff0c&#8217;y&#8217; \u8868\u793a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u503c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u901a\u5e38\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u4fee\u6539 pd.dataframe \u7684\u5217\u540d\u5b57\u3002\u5982\u679c\u539f\u6765\u7684\u4e24\u5217\u540d\u5b57\u662f &#8216;timestamp&#8217; \u548c &#8216;value&#8217; \u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u8fd9\u6837\u5199\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>df = df.rename(columns={'timestamp':'ds', 'value':'y'})<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c &#8216;timestamp&#8217; \u662f\u4f7f\u7528 unixtime \u6765\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4fee\u6539\u6210 YYYY-MM-DD hh:mm:ss \u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>df&#91;'ds'] = pd.to_datetime(df&#91;'ds'],unit='s')<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e00\u822c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u800c pd.dataframe \u7684\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u7b80\u5355\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>df&#91;'y'] = (df&#91;'y'] - df&#91;'y'].mean()) \/ (df&#91;'y'].std())<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u540e\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u62df\u5408\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fdb\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u6a21\u578b\uff1am = Prophet()\n\u62df\u5408\u6a21\u578b\uff1am.fit(df)\n\u8ba1\u7b97\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\uff1aperiods \u8868\u793a\u9700\u8981\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u70b9\u6570\uff0cfreq \u8868\u793a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u9891\u7387\u3002\nfuture = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=30, freq='min')\nfuture.tail()\nforecast = m.predict(future)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c freq \u6307\u7684\u662f pd.dataframe \u91cc\u9762\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff0c&#8217;min&#8217; \u8868\u793a\u6309\u5206\u949f\u6765\u6536\u96c6\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u53c2\u89c1\u6587\u6863\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/link.zhihu.com\/?target=http%3A\/\/pandas.pydata.org\/pandas-docs\/stable\/timeseries.html%23offset-aliases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">http:\/\/pandas.pydata.org\/pandas-docs\/stable\/timeseries.html#offset-aliases<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic3.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-2fbe2a5ee9efd7139bcaf187eb9a80de_720w.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u5e0c\u671b\u628a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8d8b\u52bf\u753b\u51fa\u6765\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\u753b\u51fa\u9884\u6d4b\u56fe\uff1a\nm.plot(forecast)\n\u753b\u51fa\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5206\u91cf\uff1a\nm.plot_components(forecast)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic4.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-7a04354a792a4922be8ee1146c50d073_720w.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic2.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-57567e4c9e26dcd15cfa58d6c6396cbd_720w.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u8981\u753b\u51fa\u66f4\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e2d\u95f4\u7ebf\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u754c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u5199\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>x1 = forecast&#91;'ds']\ny1 = forecast&#91;'yhat']\ny2 = forecast&#91;'yhat_lower']\ny3 = forecast&#91;'yhat_upper']\nplt.plot(x1,y1)\nplt.plot(x1,y2)\nplt.plot(x1,y3)\nplt.show()<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic2.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-69cae3dc0fa75f48ad031af6080a0431_720w.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u5b9e Prophet \u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u90fd\u653e\u5728\u4e86\u53d8\u91cf forecast \u91cc\u9762\uff0c\u6253\u5370\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u8bdd\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fd9\u6837\u5199\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u884c\u662f\u6253\u5370\u6240\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u6233\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u884c\u662f\u6253\u5370\u6700\u540e\u4e94\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6233\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>print(forecast&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat', 'yhat_lower', 'yhat_upper']])\nprint(forecast&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat', 'yhat_lower', 'yhat_upper']].tail())<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Prophet_%E7%9A%84%E5%8F%82%E6%95%B0%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE\"><\/span><strong>Prophet \u7684\u53c2\u6570\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Prophet \u7684\u9ed8\u8ba4\u53c2\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728 forecaster.py \u4e2d\u770b\u5230\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>def __init__(\n    self,\n    growth='linear',\n    changepoints=None,\n    n_changepoints=25, \n    changepoint_range=0.8,\n    yearly_seasonality='auto',\n    weekly_seasonality='auto',\n    daily_seasonality='auto',\n    holidays=None,\n    seasonality_mode='additive',\n    seasonality_prior_scale=10.0,\n    holidays_prior_scale=10.0,\n    changepoint_prior_scale=0.05,\n    mcmc_samples=0,\n    interval_width=0.80,\n    uncertainty_samples=1000,\n):<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF%E5%87%BD%E6%95%B0%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE\"><\/span><strong>\u589e\u957f\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728 Prophet \u91cc\u9762\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u589e\u957f\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u662f\u5206\u6bb5\u7ebf\u6027\u51fd\u6570\uff08linear\uff09\u548c\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u51fd\u6570\uff08logistic\uff09\u3002\u800c m = Prophet() \u9ed8\u8ba4\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u662f\u5206\u6bb5\u7ebf\u6027\u51fd\u6570\uff08linear\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5982\u679c\u8981\u662f\u7528\u903b\u8f91\u56de\u5f52\u51fd\u6570\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8bbe\u7f6e capacity \u7684\u503c\uff0ci.e. df[&#8216;cap&#8217;] = 100\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4f1a\u51fa\u9519\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>m = Prophet()\nm = Prophet(growth='linear')\nm = Prophet(growth='logistic')<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%8F%98%E7%82%B9%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE\"><\/span><strong>\u53d8\u70b9\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728 Prophet \u91cc\u9762\uff0c\u53d8\u70b9\u9ed8\u8ba4\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u524d 80% \u7684\u70b9\u4e2d\u7b49\u8ddd\u9009\u62e9 25 \u4e2a\u70b9\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53d8\u70b9\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4ee5\u4e0b\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u81ea\u884c\u8bbe\u7f6e\u53d8\u70b9\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u4eba\u4e3a\u8bbe\u7f6e\u67d0\u4e9b\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>m = Prophet(n_changepoints=25)\nm = Prophet(changepoint_range=0.8)\nm = Prophet(changepoint_prior_scale=0.05)\nm = Prophet(changepoints=&#91;'2014-01-01'])<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u53d8\u70b9\u7684\u4f5c\u56fe\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>from fbprophet.plot import add_changepoints_to_plot\nfig = m.plot(forecast)\na = add_changepoints_to_plot(fig.gca(), m, forecast)\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic3.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-744b21fa33af8e261fea7ff8465ec152_720w.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E6%80%A7%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE\"><\/span><strong>\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u901a\u5e38\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728 Prophet \u91cc\u9762\u8bbe\u7f6e\u5468\u671f\u6027\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u6309\u6708\u8fd8\u662f\u5468\u5176\u5b9e\u90fd\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u7f6e\u7684\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>m = Prophet(weekly_seasonality=False)\nm.add_seasonality(name='monthly', period=30.5, fourier_order=5)\nm = Prophet(weekly_seasonality=True)\nm.add_seasonality(name='weekly', period=7, fourier_order=3, prior_scale=0.1)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pic4.zhimg.com\/80\/v2-2641aad35a57c7fa2e34144c98ccc5db_720w.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E8%8A%82%E5%81%87%E6%97%A5%E7%9A%84%E8%AE%BE%E7%BD%AE\"><\/span><strong>\u8282\u5047\u65e5\u7684\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6709\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u53cc\u5341\u4e00\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u4e9b\u7279\u6b8a\u8282\u5047\u65e5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbe\u7f6e\u67d0\u4e9b\u5929\u6570\u662f\u8282\u5047\u65e5\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8bbe\u7f6e\u5b83\u7684\u524d\u540e\u5f71\u54cd\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f lower_window \u548c upper_window\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>playoffs = pd.DataFrame({\n  'holiday': 'playoff',\n  'ds': pd.to_datetime(&#91;'2008-01-13', '2009-01-03', '2010-01-16',\n                        '2010-01-24', '2010-02-07', '2011-01-08',\n                        '2013-01-12', '2014-01-12', '2014-01-19',\n                        '2014-02-02', '2015-01-11', '2016-01-17',\n                        '2016-01-24', '2016-02-07']),\n  'lower_window': 0,\n  'upper_window': 1,\n})\nsuperbowls = pd.DataFrame({\n  'holiday': 'superbowl',\n  'ds': pd.to_datetime(&#91;'2010-02-07', '2014-02-02', '2016-02-07']),\n  'lower_window': 0,\n  'upper_window': 1,\n})\nholidays = pd.concat((playoffs, superbowls))\n\nm = Prophet(holidays=holidays, holidays_prior_scale=10.0)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\uff1ahttps:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/52330017<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7814\u5224\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d44\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u800c\u8a00\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002Facebook\u57282017\u5e74\u5f00\u6e90\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217&hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/02\/%e8%bf%90%e7%bb%b4%e5%b7%a5%e5%85%b7-%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-prophet%e6%97%b6%e5%ba%8f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%ae%9e%e8%b7%b5\/\" class=\"more-link read-more\" rel=\"bookmark\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u8fd0\u7ef4\u5de5\u5177 &#8211; \u5f02\u5e38\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790 Prophet\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u5b9e\u8df5<\/span><i class=\"fa fa-arrow-right\"><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"views":544,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/896"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=896"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/896\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":920,"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/896\/revisions\/920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=896"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=896"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/viplao.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=896"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}